Sell That S*it! · Briefing 01

European venture returns beat North America over ten years

The show asks a VC how a company graduates from one stage to the next. This is the macro backdrop to that question, and most of it argues against what the room believes.

By Alex Muresan · Published · Updated

European venture capital returned 20.77% net IRR over a ten year horizon against North America's 18.18%, a 14.2% relative lead. Invest Europe measured 223 European funds against 2,500 North American ones on Cambridge Associates data. Europe trails badly on valuations and on exits. It does not trail on returns.

Do European VCs outperform US VCs?

Over ten and fifteen years, yes. The lead is widest at the ten year mark, which is the horizon most limited partners actually underwrite against.

Net IRR by horizon. Invest Europe on Cambridge Associates data, July 2024.
HorizonEuropeNorth America
10 years20.77%18.18%
15 years16.57%16.09%
20 years12.87%13.03%

North America takes the twenty year horizon back by 16 basis points, on funds raised before most of these ecosystems existed. A second provider reaches the same conclusion with different figures: Atomico's State of European Tech 2025 puts the European VC index at 17.2% over ten years against US VC at 13.1%, a wider gap than the one above. Where two sources disagree on the size, this page quotes the more conservative one.

Why does European venture funding look so far behind the US?

Because two companies distort the total. The headline gap is real and it is also almost entirely the work of two firms in San Francisco.

Capital deployed and new unicorns minted, first half of 2026. Crunchbase.
First half of 2026VC deployedNew unicornsPer unicorn
Europe$42B27$1.56B
North America$392B115$3.41B
North America, less OpenAI and Anthropic$175B115$1.52B

OpenAI and Anthropic raised $217 billion between them in that six months, which was 43% of every venture dollar raised on earth. Take those two out of the denominator and the two continents convert capital into billion dollar companies at the same rate. The per unicorn figures are arithmetic on the published totals rather than a number either source printed, and unicorn creation lags the funding that caused it, so treat them as an order of magnitude and not a decimal.

Are European round sizes growing or shrinking?

Growing, while the American median shrinks. This is the reversal almost nobody prices in.

Median deal value, first quarter of 2026 against the same quarter a year earlier. PitchBook.
RegionMedian dealYear on year
Europe2.9M EUR+38.1%
United States3.6M EUR-9.6%

The second quarter repeated it, Europe up 25% and the United States down 13.5%. American capital is concentrating at the top of the market, so the typical US round is getting smaller even as the total climbs. The typical European round is getting bigger.

Where is European venture genuinely behind?

Valuations and exits, and both are worse than the funding gap makes them look.

Median pre-money valuation, second quarter of 2026. PitchBook.
StageEuropeUnited States
AI startup8.3M EUR64.2M EUR
Series A$28M$48M

A European founder sells the same company for less, which is the mechanical reason the returns work: the entry price is lower. The exit side is the real problem. Atomico found Europe generates 17% of new global enterprise value and captures 10% of exit value, and over 40% of European exit value is booked abroad. Global tech exit value in 2025 was $608 billion, of which Europe took roughly $61 billion and the United States took more than half.

Europe converts created value into realised cash at 0.59 against the rest of the world's 1.08. That derivation is arithmetic on Atomico's two published shares, not a figure they printed. It matters because a venture ecosystem compounds on realised cash: the founder who turns angel, the operator who starts something, the LP who re-ups. Money booked in New York creates a New York angel.

Which European companies are the biggest right now?

Five companies carry most of the continent's private value, and every one of them reached its current mark inside the last twelve months.

Largest European private technology companies by reported valuation, September 2026.
CompanyValuationCountryCategory
Helsing$18BGermanyDefence AI
Nscale$14.6BUnited KingdomAI data centres
Mistral$14BFranceFoundation models
Lovable$13.3BSwedenAI app building
ElevenLabs$11BUnited KingdomVoice AI

Poolside sits at a comparable mark and is left off deliberately: French founders, US incorporation, and every tracker files it differently. Valuations in this table move monthly, and a tracker checked four months earlier still had Helsing at $12 billion and Lovable at $6.6 billion. Date any figure taken from here.

What would actually fix it?

Exit infrastructure, not more capital at the top of the funnel. Europe invests about 0.17% of GDP in venture against 0.61% in the United States, and closing that gap is the obvious prescription, but it treats the symptom. European VCs name the same two constraints when asked what stops them deploying more: there is no M&A market of any depth, and the public markets are too shallow to list into. Klarna listed in New York, not Stockholm.

Until a European company can be bought or floated at home, the returns will keep being good and the proceeds will keep leaving. That is the question every guest on this show gets asked.

How these numbers were sourced

Every figure on this page carries its provider and period in the table caption. Three things are worth knowing before quoting any of it.

The trackers disagree on counts. PitchBook records 18 new European unicorns in 2026 and a herd of 175 VC-backed companies above one billion euros. Crunchbase counted 27 new European unicorns in the first half alone. Different definitions of unicorn, different geography, different inclusion rules. Name the source beside the number.

Two figures here are derived rather than published: capital per unicorn minted, and the 0.59 conversion ratio. Both are stated as derivations above. Everything else is quoted.

Sources: Invest Europe on Cambridge Associates data (July 2024); PitchBook European VC Valuations, first and second quarters of 2026; Crunchbase global funding and unicorn board, first half of 2026 and July 2026; Atomico State of European Tech 2025; PitchBook European unicorn herd, June 30th 2026.

If you are a VC and you think this page is wrong, that is the booking. Season one of Sell That S*it! asks investors how a company graduates from one stage to the next, anchored in a portfolio company that made distribution a moat. Come argue with the numbers on air.